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Global Data Watch

11th Sept- 15th Sept 2017

UK: BoE to remain on hold, communication key. The BoE is expected to keep monetary policy steady at its 13-14 September meeting. More important will be the tone of the communication and the voting pattern, with some mixed economic development. On the one hand, the labour market remains tight and the recent weakening in the GBP and rise in the oil price will support inflation.

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4th Sept- 8th Sept 2017

Eurozone: ECB unlikely to announce QE tapering. The key event will the ECB's meeting on 7 September, with no change in policy forecast. We believe that it is too early for the Governing Council (GC) to announce its asset purchasing plans for 2018 this week. We see the Fed's September meeting as being important for the ECB, to gauge whether the FOMC will offset its balance sheet normalisation process with a reduction in the amount of interest rate hikes expected in 2018 (dot plot).

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28th Aug- 1st Sept 2017

US: Labour, personal spending and PCE data releases. The US will see a number of important releases at the end of this week. Core PCE inflation (due 31 August) is forecast to remain subdued, rising by just 0.1% m-o-m in July, in line with the previous two months. As a result, the yearly growth rate should moderate to 1.4% y-o-y, from 1.5% in June.

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21st Aug- 25th Aug 2017

Global: Yellen and Draghi to speak at Jackson Hole. The key events this week will be the speeches of Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi on 25 August at the Jackson Hole Symposium titled "Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy". The occasion has been used to announce policy directions and shape market expectations in the past. However, we expect limited new guidance on monetary policy or any conclusive messages this time.

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14th Aug- 18th Aug 2017

US: FOMC's July minutes and retail sales in focus.Geopolitical developments will continue to dominate markets this week; the heightened tension between the US and North Korea has resulted in a sharp rise in risk aversion. There is also a return to important fundamental data releases.

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7th Aug- 11th Aug 2017

US: Core inflation growth to have remained soft. The upcoming week will be quieter, following last week's busy schedule of data releases and central bank meetings. The key focus will be on US inflation data for July, due on 11 August. Consensus forecasts that core inflation expanded at a still soft pace of 0.2% m-o-m, partly supported by favourable rounding, albeit up from 0.1% in the previous three months.

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31st July- 4th Aug 2017

US: Labour, personal spending and PCE data releases. Key data releases this week are likely to show the ongoing dichotomy between the momentum in the labour market and inflation dynamics. Consensus expects the NFP data to remain healthy, with the US economy adding 180K jobs in July after the strong print of 222K in June.

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24th July- 28th July 2017

US: Focus will be on Fed's communication. We expect the Fed to remain on hold at its 25-26 July meeting, in line with consensus, after it raised the FFTR by 25 bps at its previous meeting to 1.25% (upper bound). The main focus will be on the meeting statement; there will be no conference held by Fed Chair Janet Yellen or new economic forecasts. Markets will particularly watch for any guidance regarding announcements on the balance sheet reinvestment policy and any changes to the inflation outlook.

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17th July- 21st July 2017

Eurozone: ECB likely to temper QE tapering expectations. The ECB is likely to maintain its present accommodative monetary stance at its 20 July meeting, allaying any expectations of a further reduction in its monthly asset-purchase target of EUR60 billion in the near term. The central bank should continue to emphasise the ongoing need for loose monetary policy to allow inflation to converge towards its medium-term target of 2%, especially given the deceleration in headline inflation since April.

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10th July - 14th July 2017

US: Yellen's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony and CPI data.Fed Chair Janet Yellen's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to Congress on 12 13 July will be closely examined for further indications of the monetary policy outlook. We expect Yellen to remain hawkish overall, in line with her post-June meeting communication, despite some emerging differences within the FOMC (see page 4).

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12th June- 16th June 2017

US: FOMC expected to raise FFTR by 25 bps, focus on guidance The Fed is widely expected to raise the FFTR by 25 bps to 1.25% (upper bound) at its 13-14 June meeting, making it the second hike this year.

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5th June- 9th June 2017

Eurozone: No change to ECB's QE programme expected yet. Markets will look to the ECB's monetary policy meeting (8 June) for any change in forward guidance on its QE programme, given the relatively solid GDP growth data since its last meeting.

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29th May- 2nd June 2017

US: Solid labour data would likely result in June rate hike. US labour data for May (2 June) and April personal spending and PCE data (30 May) will dominate the releases this week.

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22nd May- 26th May 2017

US: FOMC minutes and 1Q GDP (2nd estimate) key releases. The upcoming week will be busy with a number of data releases (1Q GDP, April durable goods orders and May consumer confidence) and minutes of the FOMC's 3 May meeting.

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24th April- 28th April 2017

Global: US and UK GDP growth forecast to slow in 1Q2017. The key data releases this week will be the first estimates for 1Q2017 GDP for the US and the UK, both on 28 April. The consensus expectation is for US real GDP growth to soften to 1.1% q-o-q SAAR from 2.1% in 4Q2016.

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10th April- 14th April 2017

G4: US and UK inflation, Yellen scheduled to speak today. The key US release this week will be March inflation data (14 April), with consensus forecasting headline inflation to have slowed to 2.6% y-o-y (February: 2.7%).

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3rd April- 7th April 2017

US: March NFP data and FOMC minutes the key releases : Momentum of US data will be in focus after expectations of fiscal support to boost economic activity in the near term have diminished. Consensus is expecting another solid NFP report for March (7 April) with 175K jobs created and wage growth of 0.3% m-o-m.

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27th March- 31st Mar 2017

UK: Start of Brexit process with the triggering of Article 50 The key event this week will be the UK government's formal application to start the Brexit process, by triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (29 March). Consequently, as per the treaty, the UK will exit the EU in March 2019.

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20th March- 24th Mar 2017

US: We now expect total of three Fed rate hikes in 2017: The upcoming week will be much quieter, following the FOMC meeting last week. The main data release from the US will be durable goods orders for February (due 24 March). Consensus expects that total orders expanded by a healthy 1.2% m-o-m in February (January: 2%), supported by aircrafts. Consensus also expects a respectable expansion of 0.6% m-o-m (January: -0.1%) for core capital goods orders (ex-defence and aircrafts) with increased demand for machinery.

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13th March- 17th Mar 2017

US: Focus on the Fed's forward guidance, hike expected : We expect the Fed to raise the FFTR by 25 bps to 1% (upper bound) at its 14-15 March meeting. Markets are pricing in a 98% probability of a 25 bps rate hike following the strong February payroll report, with 235K jobs created and the unemployment rate falling to 4.7% (page 2). Market focus will be on projections and the tone of the guidance, particularly if there is any indication of a June rate hike. Overall, we expect the Fed to present a more positive assessment of the economy, including an improvement in the balance of risk.

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13th March- 17th Mar 2017

US: Focus on the Fed's forward guidance, hike expected : We expect the Fed to raise the FFTR by 25 bps to 1% (upper bound) at its 14-15 March meeting. Markets are pricing in a 98% probability of a 25 bps rate hike following the strong February payroll report, with 235K jobs created and the unemployment rate falling to 4.7% (page 2). Market focus will be on projections and the tone of the guidance, particularly if there is any indication of a June rate hike. Overall, we expect the Fed to present a more positive assessment of the economy, including an improvement in the balance of risk.

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6th March- 10th Mar 2017

US: Solid February NFP data would support March rate hike : February NFP data (due 10 March) will be particularly important following more hawkish comments by FOMC members recently. Consensus expects a robust jobs report, with 190K jobs created and wage growth accelerating to 0.3% m-o-m (January: 0.1%). The unemployment rate is forecast to moderate to 4.7% in February (January: 4.8%). If the data prints in line with market expectations, we expect the Fed to raise the FFTR by 25 bps at its 14-15 March meeting (page 4). Previously we had expected the first rate hike of 2017 in June.

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27th Feb- 3rd Mar 2017

US: President Trump's address to Congress the key event : The upcoming week will be busy for US data and events, with President Donald Trump's address to a joint session of Congress taking centre stage (28 February). Markets will focus on the economic agenda, especially specific details of upcoming fiscal policy. Expectations of fiscal loosening (lowering taxes, increasing investment and support to businesses) have boosted sentiment and driven US stock markets up since the presidential election, despite limited particulars so far.

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20th Feb- 24th Feb 2017

US: Minutes of the FOMC meeting : The key focus in the US will be the minutes of the last FOMC meeting (ended 1 February) released on 22 February. The post-meeting statement was only mildly more hawkish than the previous one, especially compared to recent comments by FOMC members.

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6th Feb- 10th Feb 2017

India: RBI to cut policy rates by 25 bps : We expect the RBI to cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 6% on 8 February. We believe that fiscal prudence, an RBI prerequisite for further monetary easing, has been demonstrated by the government in its FY18 (April 2017 - March 2018) budget. The budget aims to further reduce its fiscal deficit to -3.2% in FY218, from -3.5% in FY17.

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30th Jan- 03rd Feb 2017

US: January NFP data and Fed meeting in focus : Key data releases this week will be January NFP data (due 3 February) and December personal spending and core PCE data (30 January). Consensus forecasts solid jobs growth of 175K in January, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.7% and wage growth of 0.3% m-o-m. Meanwhile, we expect the Fed to remain on hold at its meeting (ending 1 February), after raising the FFTR by 25 bps in December.

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23rd Jan- 27th Jan 2017

US: 4Q GDP to moderate, new administration's policies in focus : Key data releases this week will be the first reading of 4Q2016 GDP and December durable goods orders (both due 27 January). Consensus is estimating that real GDP growth moderated to 2.2% q-o-q SAAR in 4Q, from 3.5% in 3Q.

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16th Jan- 20th Jan 2017

US: December inflation data to show price pressure building : The key US economic release this week will be the December inflation data (due 18 January), which we expect to show a build up in price pressure. Consensus estimates that headline inflation strengthened to 2.1% y-o-y (0.3% m-o-m), up from 1.7% y-o-y (0.2% m-o-m) in November, largely on the back of higher energy prices. An acceleration in food prices is also forecast to support the rise in headline inflation.

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19th Dec- 23rd Dec 2016

US: Fed now sees three rate hikes in 2017: The Fed raised the FFTR by 25 bps to 0.75% (upper bound) on 14 December, in line with our and market expectations. The main surprise came from a more hawkish "dot plot", with the Fed's median forecast now pointing to three interest rate hikes of 25 bps each in 2017, from two previously (September).

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28th Nov- 2nd Dec 2016

US: NFP and PCE data to be released, second print of 3Q GDP.Consensus expects a healthy nonfarm report for November, with 175K jobs created and the unemployment rate holding at 4.9%. Warmer weather likely supported jobs growth in a number of sectors, though seasonal holiday-related hiring may have been softer.

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21st Nov- 25th Nov 2016

UK: Consumption to have propped up 3Q GDP.UK 3Q GDP growth is likely to remain unchanged at 0.5% q-o-q in its second estimate (due 25 November). We expect the Brexit-related uncertainty to have weighed on investment growth, whilst imports have likely risen on strong consumption despite the sharp GBP depreciation.

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14th Nov- 18th Nov 2016

US: We maintain our interest-rate outlook. Global uncertainty has increased following Donald Trump's surprising presidential election victory. Risk assets initially sold off sharply, though this was followed by a quick rebound with initial signs of a more conciliatory approach and a tone down in rhetoric.

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7th Nov- 11th Nov 2016

US: Narrow lead for Clinton going into election. The key event this week will be the US presidential election on 8 November, with the result expected to be announced the following day. Recent polls show the gap between Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate Donald Trump has narrowed substantially.

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24th Oct- 28th Oct 2016

US: 3Q GDP to strengthen despite softer consumption growth. GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.5% q-o-q SAAR (consensus), up from 1.4% in 2Q. The pickup is expected on the back of a greater positive contribution from net exports and firmer non-residential investment. Net exports are expected to add around 0.6-0.7 ppt to headline growth, with interim data showing stronger growth in exports than imports.

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17th Oct- 21st Oct 2016

ECB: to allay tapering fears, no new measures expected.We expect the ECB to strongly emphasise at its monthly meeting (20 October) that tapering of its QE programme in 2017 is not being considered. Market speculation over the last few weeks indicated that the ECB may be looking to reduce its asset purchases early.

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10th Oct- 14th Oct 2016

US: FOMC minutes and September retail sales in focus.Political developments will remain centre stage as markets and political commentators dissect the second US presidential election debate (9 October). Polls indicate that Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump has widened since the first debate on 26 September. Economics wise, focus will be on the minutes of the 21 September FOMC meeting (11 October).

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3rd Oct- 7th Oct 2016

US: Jobs growth likely remained healthy in September.The key data release this week will be the September NFP data (due 7 October). Consensus expects jobs growth remained solid at 170K, and up from the 151K in August. However, historically August and September data tends to be weak on the first print and then subsequently revised higher.

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26th Sep- 30th Sep 2016

Oil: OPEC and Russia meet in Algiers to discuss output.We remain sceptical that a deal to limit output will be struck between OPEC and Russia at an informal meeting scheduled for 28 September. This is despite more signs of conciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

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19th Sep- 22th Sep 2016

US: FOMC to keep rates on hold.We expect the FOMC to keep monetary policy steady at its September meeting (on 20-21), in line with consensus. We believe that the Fed will wait for the December meeting to raise rates by 25 bps. The FOMC will likely want to see some signs of a pickup in inflationary pressures before hiking.

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5th Sep- 9th Sep 2016

Eurozone: Significant monetary easing expected by ECB.The ECB's monetary policy meeting on 8 September will be the market-moving event of next week. We believe the ECB will be compelled to act to prevent a further deterioration in inflation expectations after prices remained at low levels through the summer and money supply growth slowed again despite the QE.

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29th Aug- 2nd Sep 2016

US: Jobs growth likely remained healthy in August. August NFP data (due 2 September) will be even more closely scrutinised after Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that the case for an interest rate hike had strengthened (see page 4). Yellen's comments keep the door open for a September rate hike if the August payroll numbers are strong, though we still see December as the most likely timing.

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22nd Aug- 26th Aug 2016

US: Market to look for guidance on rate hike timing.The key event this week will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech (26 August) at the Jackson Hole Symposium, titled "Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future". The occasion has been used as a platform to announce policy directions and shape monetary policy expectations in the past.

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15th Aug- 19th Aug 2016

US: July inflation data and Fed minutes.The key US release this week will be the inflation data for July. Consensus expectations are that the CPI remained steady (0% m-o-m) on the back of falling energy prices and flat food costs. This will be balanced by a 0.2% m-o-m increase in core prices, supported by the cost of shelter and other services.

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8th Aug- 12th Aug 2016

China: July numbers to show continued softening. Economic data for July should continue to moderate, in line with our view of a gradual deceleration in real GDP growth in 2H2016. An increased emphasis on SOE reform (reducing excess capacity and leverage) by the government, as suggested in the media recently, is likely to weigh on the industrial production and fixed investment numbers.

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1st Aug- 5th Aug 2016

US: July NFP data to remain solid at 175K. The key data release this week (due 5 August) will be the non-farm payroll numbers for July. Consensus expects that a healthy 175K jobs were created in July, albeit down from the 287K in June which was boosted by the weak May print.

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25th July- 29th July 2016

Japan: BoJ expected to expand its QE programme and cut rates. In an action-packed week, central banks will take centre stage with particular focus on the BoJ's meeting (28-29 July). We and the market expect further easing, after the BoJ slashed its inflation forecasts. An expansion in the asset purchase programme of around JPY10 trillion (to JPY90 trillion) is most likely, largely centred on ETFs (to around JPY6 trillion a year, from JPY3.3 trillion).

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18th July- 20th July 2016

Europe: ECB to outline monetary policy post-Brexit vote. At its meeting on 21 July - the first since the Brexit vote in June - the ECB will provide its preliminary assessment of the economic and monetary outlook. The broader monetary stance is likely to remain unchanged. However, markets will closely track any estimates by ECB officials of the extent of the slowdown in growth and inflation to gauge the likelihood of QE being extended.

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11th July- 15th July 2016

UK: BoE to provide initial assessment of Brexit In its first monetary policy meeting (14 July) following the Brexit vote, the BoE should provide an outline of its post-referendum monetary policy outlook. We do not believe an extensive package of monetary easing measures will be announced yet, though the overall tone of the bank's comments on the economy and credit conditions is likely to be significantly dovish. In our view, any major monetary easing measures are likely to follow only after the inflation report is released (4 August), in which the bank assesses how the inflationary risks from a weaker GBP are stacked against the disinflationary drag from tepid domestic demand.

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4th July- 8th July 2016

Global: Markets have stabilised since Brexit vote A week after the Brexit vote, the losses in financial markets have been more limited than initially expected. So far, the sell-off has focused on specific assets, suggesting some variance in investors' perceptions of risk in each market.

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20th June - 24th June 2016

Global: Uncertainty to drive market volatility The Brexit vote has provided a significant shock to markets and global confidence. Volatility is expected to remain high, as markets digest the implications of the vote. The immediate global economic impact will flow almost entirely through financial channels, as the structural implications for the UK and Eurozone will take time to develop. Global growth forecasts are being reduced for 2016 and beyond as a result of the market moves, heightened risk aversion, expected tightening in financial conditions and rise in political risk.

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20th June - 24th June 2016

UK: Global risk sentiment to hinge on EU referendum result The UK votes on whether or not it wants to remain part of the EU on Thursday (23 June). We continue to expect voters to opt for the status quo, despite opinion polls indicating that the result will be a close call. We believe that undecided voters, around 10% of the total currently, are more likely to prefer to stay than to opt out of the EU. We expect a rebound in the GBP in the event of a Remain vote.

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13th June - 17th June 2016

US: Fed to remain on hold; projections in spotlight The FOMC is expected to remain on hold on 15 June, keeping the FFTR range at 0.25-0.5%. We believe that the Fed will need time to reassess the overall macro picture following the disappointing NFP data for May. Focus will be on the statement, the Fed's economic projections and Chair Janet Yellen's press conference.

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6th June - 10th June 2016

US: Yellen's speech more important after weak labour data The key event this week will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech (6 June) on the economic outlook and monetary policy, which has become even more important after the dismal NFP data for May. Markets will focus on changes to the policy guidance, in light of the weaker jobs data. Any comments on the labour market and how close it is to full employment will be particularly pertinent, in our view.

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23rd May - 27th May 2016

Japan: Likely to announce fiscal support; JPY in spotlight The Japanese economy and policy will be the focus of the week as the country hosts the G7 summit (26-27 May). We do not expect any collective steps by the G7, including greater fiscal stimulus to boost demand (a key agenda point). However, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe could use the summit to announce further fiscal stimulus and a delay to the second sales tax hike, though the cabinet is only scheduled to finalise its 2016 fiscal policy after the summit.

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16th May - 20th May 2016

US: Watch FOMC minutes for Fed's rate hike criteria Minutes of the April FOMC meeting will be closely scrutinised, after the Fed effectively kept its options open in the post-meeting statement. The weaker data for 1Q was largely dismissed and the March reference to global risks was dropped, though the FOMC did not give any clear policy direction.

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25th April - 29th April 2016

US: FOMC guidance to be closely watched for changes In an important events and data week, the Fed's meeting (26-27 April) will take centre stage. With monetary policy expected to remain steady, the tone and guidance of the FOMC's statement will be of particular interest. There are no new forecasts or a press conference in conjunction with this meeting.

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18th April - 22nd April 2016

Europe: No change in ECB policy, comments in focus We expect monetary policy to remain steady at the ECB's 21 April meeting, after the comprehensive package of monetary loosening measures that was introduced in March. We believe the ECB will require a number of months to gauge the impact of the package.

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28th March - 1st April 2016

US: Non-farm payrolls to have remained strong in March US labour data will be the key releases of this week, with the focus magnified by the hawkish policy comments by Fed members last week. Consensus forecasts that a solid 208K jobs were created in March, albeit down from the 242K in February.

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21st March - 25th March 2016

US: Durable goods orders expected to contract Globally, the week will be relatively quiet with largely secondary data and events ahead of the Easter period. Markets will continue to digest the dovish statement from the Fed which came despite ongoing signs of a pickup in inflation and an improvement in the labour market.

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14th March - 18th March 2016

US: No change in Fed policy expected, despite solid data The key event of the week will be the FOMC meeting on 15-16 March, where we expect the Fed to keep policy steady. This includes maintaining the fed funds target rate (FFTR) range at 0.25-0.5%.

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7th March - 11th March 2016

Eurozone: ECB set to loosen, but differences in Council could lead to surprise. The key event this week is the ECB meeting on 10 March, where at the very minimum we expect a -10 bps cut in the deposit rate to -0.4%. There have been some expectations of a possible "tiered" deposit rate system, as in Japan, which would help shield bank profitability from deeper negative deposit rates.

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29th February - 4th March 2016

US: January nonfarm payrolls the key release Consensus forecasts that a solid 193K jobs were created in February, up from 151K in January. The storms in the North East at the end of January pose a possible risk, in areas such as construction.

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22nd February - 26th February 2016

US: Core PCE to be closely watched after inflation surprise The focus of US data this week will be durable goods orders and personal spending data for January. Personal spending is expected to rise to 0.3% m-o-m in January (from 0% in December), in line with the pickup in retail sales.

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15th February - 19th February 2016

US: Inflation expected to turn negative on weaker fuel prices US retail sales showed that consumer spending regained momentum in January, despite the market turbulence. Data has not been as weak as markets are implying. However, a key risk remains of the market turmoil affecting the economy through deteriorating sentiment.

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8th February - 12th February 2016

US: Yellen testimony to take centre stage Fed Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress (10-11 February) will be the key event of the week. This is especially so after the January non-farm payrolls revived market confidence in the US's economic recovery.

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1st February - 5th February 2016

US: Labour and manufacturing data in focus This week brings numerous important US data releases, including NFPs, ISM manufacturing (January) and personal income and spending (December). Consensus forecasts that a solid 190K jobs were created in January, albeit down from 292K in December.

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25th January - 29th January 2016

US: No change in rates, statement to be watched closely The key event this week will be the FOMC's meeting on 26-27 January. We see the focus being on the post-meeting statement, as we expect monetary policy to remain steady. Neither a press conference nor forecast updates are scheduled.

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18th January - 22nd January 2016

China: 4Q GDP data, December IP and retail sales Markets will focus on data from China this week, including 4Q GDP growth. The consensus is that real GDP growth will have remained steady at 6.9% y o-y in 4Q, supported in part by stronger government infrastructure spending. Meanwhile, the consensus is for some monthly improvement in the interim data for December, with a pickup in auto sales likely to have supported retail sales and industrial production.

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21st December - 25th December 2015

US: Raises interest rates, but gradual cycle expected The Fed raised interest rates by 25 bps on 16 December, bringing the fed funds target rate (FFTR) band to 0.25-0.5%, in line with our and market expectations. The interest on excess reserves (IOER) was raised to 0.5% (in line with the upper bound) and the overnight reverse repurchase rate increased to 0.25%.

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14th December - 18th December 2015

US: We expect 25 bps FFTR hike on 16 December The key event this week will be the FOMC's meeting on 15-16 December. We expect the fed funds target rate (FFTR) to be raised by 25 bps to 0.5% (the upper bound) on 16 December.

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7th December - 11th December 2015

UK: BoE expected to keep rates on hold This week is set to be relatively quiet data-wise following the eventful developments of last week. Markets will continue to digest the weaker than expected easing by the ECB on 3 December.

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30th November - 4th December 2015

Eurozone: Further ECB easing expected on 3 December We expect the ECB to announce further monetary easing at its 3 December meeting, driven by the low inflation outlook. We foresee the bank cutting the deposit facility rate by at least -10 bps to -0.3%.

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23rd November - 27th November 2015

US: 3Q GDP data likely to be revised up The key data release from the US this week will be the second reading of 3Q GDP on Tuesday 24 November. The consensus is for GDP growth to be revised up to 2.1% q-o-q SAAR in 3Q, from 1.5% in the initial reading. Markets are forecasting a weaker drag from inventories following stronger than-expected data for September.

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16th November - 20th November 2015

Global: US, Eurozone, UK to release October inflation data Key global economies are to release inflation data this week, including the US, Eurozone, and UK. Headline inflation is expected to remain weak at around zero in annual terms in each of these three areas. However, comments by central bankers continue to highlight the sharply differing views on the inflation outlook, especially between the US and the Eurozone.

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9th November - 13th November 2015

US: Retail spending and consumer confidence data the key releases The October nonfarm payroll report provided an exciting end to last week, bolstering our outlook for a December interest rate hike. The market-implied probability of a 25 bps interest rate hike in December increased to 68% following the strong October labour report.

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2nd November - 6th November 2015

US: October payroll data the week's key release Jobs data will be central to the Fed's decision on whether to raise interest rates at its December meeting. The consensus expects the US economy to have added 180K jobs in October (the figure is to be released on 6 November), indicating a rebound from the 136K seen in August and the 142K in September.

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26th October - 30th October 2015

US: Fed meeting statement in the spotlight A number of important economic events and data releases are due this week. The Fed will meet on 27-28 October, with interest rates expected to remain on hold. Thus, all eyes will be on the accompanying statement (no post meeting conference or new projections are scheduled).

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5th October - 9th October 2015

US: 17 September FOMC minutes to be released This week will be dominated by global central bank related events, including the release of the FOMC's mid-September minutes on 8 October. These should provide more detailed reasoning behind the Fed's decision to leave interest rates on hold on 17 September, and will likely show that it was a close decision to keep the FFTR unchanged.

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28th September - 2nd October 2015

US: September NFP and personal spending data to be released US labour data (2 October) will be the key release in a data-heavy week, and are forecast to show healthy gains. The consensus is for a solid 202K rise in nonfarm payrolls in September, with the unemployment rate remaining at 5.1%. We also expect an upward revision to the August number from the initial 173K reading.

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21st September - 25th September 2015

US: Fed stays put, citing global weakness and low inflation The Fed left the target range for the federal funds target rate (FFTR) unchanged at 0-0.25% at its 17 September policy meeting. We had been looking for a first rate hike of 25 bps, though we had cited risks of a delay from global developments. The heightened economic uncertainty abroad and weak inflation environment were the main reasons for keeping the FFTR on hold.

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14th September - 18th September 2015

US: Our core scenario is a 25 bps rate hike The key event this week will be the FOMC's meeting on 16-17 September. We believe that the US labour market has rebounded sufficiently to meet the FOMC's requirements for a rate increase. We continue to expect the Fed to raise rates on 17 September by 25 bps, with the healthy state of the US economy enabling it to weather a rise.

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7th September - 11th September 2015

Asia: Chinese macroeconomic data for August to be released The key focus this week will be on Chinese macroeconomic data for August, including trade, credit, and inflation. Markets will look to gauge the impact of the fall in the Chinese stock market on the real economy. Any indications of a hard landing would likely lead to further volatility in Chinese and global markets, alongside expectations of fresh stimulus measures from Beijing.

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31st August - 4th September 2015

US: All eyes on labour data this week The consensus is for job creation to have remained solid at 220K in August, above the six-month moving average of 213K and 215K in July. The August reading has historically tended to come in below the consensus, then be revised up.

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24th August - 28th August 2015

US: PCE spending and inflation data in focus Personal spending and PCE inflation data will be key releases this week, especially in light of the increased focus on inflation following the July FOMC minutes. Personal spending is forecast to have strengthened to 0.4% m-o-m in July, from 0.2% in June, on the back of solid retail spending.

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17th August - 21st August 2015

US: Inflation expected to remain weak The key data release this week will be July inflation on 19 August. The consensus is for headline inflation to moderate to 0.2% m-o-m, from 0.3% in June, on the back of lower fuel prices.

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