Global Data Watch Global Data Watch

9th September - 13th September 2019

Eurozone: ECB expected to cut, though doubts remain over QE. The ECB is widely expected to announce a monetary stimulus package at its 12 September meeting that includes: i) a 10 bps rate cut; ii) the tiering of deposit rates to counter the negative impact on banks’ profitability; and iii) restarting asset purchases at EUR15-30 billion per month for six months from 1 October.

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2nd September - 6th September 2019

UK: Critical week ahead for Brexit. No-deal Brexit concerns have ratcheted up after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson decided to prorogue Parliament for five weeks beginning in mid-September, potentially around 9 September.

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26th August - 30th August 2019

Global: Sentiment deteriorates with escalation of trade war. Rising trade tensions and heightened global growth uncertainties continue to dominate headlines and market sentiment.

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19th August - 23 August 2019

Global: Sentiment weak amid rising recession concerns. Fears of a global recession have heightened and are dominating market sentiment amid a deteriorating global growth backdrop, elevated trade tensions between the US and China, concerns over an Argentine default, and the Hong Kong protests.

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29th July - 2nd August 2019

US: Fed to cut with dovish tilt; forward guidance key. The Fed is widely expected to lower the FFTR by 25 bps to 2.0-2.25% at its 30-31 July meeting, albeit with a split vote.

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22nd July - 26th July 2019

Eurozone: ECB expected to shift guidance towards easing. We believe that the ECB will change its forward guidance at its 25 July meeting to pave the way for a deposit rate cut in September.

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15th July - 19th July 2019

US: Powell's testimony opens door to July rate cut. Markets will continue to digest last week's central bank communication in what is set to be a relatively quieter data week.

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8th July - 12th July 2019

US: Fed communication and June CPI inflation data in focus. Key events this week will be the June FOMC minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to Congress (10-11 July).

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1st July - 5th July 2019

Global: Oil production cuts likely to be extended to end-2019. OPEC and non-OPEC (OPEC+) countries are meeting on 1-2 July to assess and recalibrate the balancing of oil markets.

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24th June - 28th June 2019

Global: G-20 summit key for trade talks and global growth. All eyes will be on the G-20 summit this week (28-29 June) to see if US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping can make a breakthrough in trade negotiations.

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17th June - 21st June 2019

US: FOMC meeting critical to gauge possibility of 2019 rate cut. We expect the Fed to remain on hold at its 18-19 June FOMC meeting (FFTR: 2.25-2.5%), while opening the door to a potential rate cut in 2019.

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10th June - 14th June 2019

Global: US CPI inflation for May and China activity data. Markets will closely scrutinise US CPI inflation and retail sales data this week, following the recent deterioration in data, including the soft May NFP report.

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3rd June - 7th June 2019

Eurozone: ECB on hold; TLTRO-III programme details. The market’s focus at the ECB’s 6 June Governing Council (GC) meeting will be on the details of the new TLTRO-III (targeted longer-term refinancing operations) programme and economic projections.

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27th May - 31st May 2019

UK: Conservative Party leadership race in focus. Political uncertainty in the UK has heightened following PM Theresa May’s decision to resign on 7 June.

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20th May - 24th May 2019

Global: Sentiment remains fragile with rising uncertainties. The return of trade tensions and heightened geopolitical risks continue to dominate headlines and market sentiment.

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13th May - 17th May 2019

Global: Uncertainties increase as US raises tariffs. Global growth uncertainties increased after the US raised tariffs from 10% to 25% on USD200 billion worth of Chinese goods last Friday.

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6th May - 10th May 2019

US: Core CPI inflation growth to have remained soft in April. The coming week will be relatively quiet following last week’s busy schedule of data releases and the FOMC meeting.

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29th April - 3rd May 2019

US: FOMC meeting, labour data and PCE inflation. The Fed is widely expected to keep the FFTR on hold at its 30 April - 1 May policy meeting, with the upper bound remaining steady at 2.5%.

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15th April - 19th April 2019

US: March rebound in retail spending growth likely. A number of key US data releases are scheduled for the holiday-shortened workweek, including retail sales and industrial production (both for March),

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8th April - 12th April 2019

Europe: No change to ECB policy; dovish tone to continue. The market’s focus at the ECB’s 10 April Governing Council (GC) meeting will be on President Mario Draghi’s post-meeting press conference for any comments on a possible ‘tiered’ rate system for excess reserves of banks.

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1st April - 5th April 2019
India: RBI likely to cut rates with unanimous vote. We expect the RBI to cut its repo rate by 25 bps to 6% at its 2-4 April meeting with a unanimous vote.
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25th March - 29th March 2019
US: Fed communication, 4Q GDP and January PCE inflation. A number of Fed speakers, including Vice Chair Richard Clarida, John Williams and Randal Quarles, have speaking engagements this week.
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18th March - 22nd March 2019
US: Fed dot plot and balance sheet guidance in spotlight. We expect the FOMC to keep interest rates steady at its 19-20 March meeting, with the overall tone continuing to point to a cautious stance.
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11th March - 15th March 2019
UK: Crucial week for Brexit - Article 50 extension most likely. The upcoming week will be a busy one with a number of key events and data releases scheduled, including the UK Spring budget statement and Brexit votes in Parliament.
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4th March - 8th March 2019
Eurozone: ECB expected to lower growth forecasts. The ECB monetary policy meeting will be the key event this week (7 March) and we expect no changes to the central bank's monetary policy.
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25th Feb - 1st March 2019
US: Powell's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony and US-China trade. Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to the Senate Banking Committee (26 February) and the House Financial Services Committee (27 February) this week.
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18th Feb - 22th Feb 2019
US: January FOMC minutes and Fed speeches. The minutes from the FOMCs January meeting (due 20 February) will be the key release from the US this week.
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11th Feb - 15th Feb 2019
Global: US core monthly CPI likely to remain steady in January. A number of key US data releases are scheduled for this week, including January CPI inflation and industrial production, and December retail sales.
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4th Feb - 08th Feb 2019
US: State of the Union address and Fed speeches in focus. President Donald Trump's State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress on 5 February will be the key event in the US this week.
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28th Jan - 1st Feb 2019
US: Fed on hold; risks of distortion to NFP data. A number of key events and data releases are scheduled from the US this week, including the FOMC meeting, January NFP report and potentially some of the pending economic data releases.
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21st Jan - 25th Jan 2019
Eurozone: ECB to remain on hold with dovish tone. The focus for this week's ECB meeting will be on any changes in communication, with monetary policy forecast to remain steady.
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14th Jan- 18th Jan 2019
UK: Prime Minister's Brexit plan unlikely to pass. The UK Parliament is set to vote on Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plan on 15 January (rescheduled from December) with expectations widespread that it will be rejected.
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