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Black & White19th Dec– 23rd Dec 2016
US: Fed now sees three rate hikes in 2017: The Fed raised the FFTR by 25 bps to 0.75% (upper bound) on 14 December, in line with our and market expectations. The main surprise came from a more hawkish “dot plot”, with the Fed’s median forecast now pointing to three interest rate hikes of 25 bps each in 2017, from two previously (September).
28th Nov– 2nd Dec 2016
US: NFP and PCE data to be released, second print of 3Q GDP.Consensus expects a healthy nonfarm report for November, with 175K jobs created and the unemployment rate holding at 4.9%. Warmer weather likely supported jobs growth in a number of sectors, though seasonal holiday-related hiring may have been softer.
21st Nov– 25th Nov 2016
UK: Consumption to have propped up 3Q GDP.UK 3Q GDP growth is likely to remain unchanged at 0.5% q-o-q in its second estimate (due 25 November). We expect the Brexit-related uncertainty to have weighed on investment growth, whilst imports have likely risen on strong consumption despite the sharp GBP depreciation.
14th Nov– 18th Nov 2016
US: We maintain our interest-rate outlook. Global uncertainty has increased following Donald Trump’s surprising presidential election victory. Risk assets initially sold off sharply, though this was followed by a quick rebound with initial signs of a more conciliatory approach and a tone down in rhetoric.
7th Nov– 11th Nov 2016
US: Narrow lead for Clinton going into election. The key event this week will be the US presidential election on 8 November, with the result expected to be announced the following day. Recent polls show the gap between Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate Donald Trump has narrowed substantially.
24th Oct– 28th Oct 2016
US: 3Q GDP to strengthen despite softer consumption growth. GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.5% q-o-q SAAR (consensus), up from 1.4% in 2Q. The pickup is expected on the back of a greater positive contribution from net exports and firmer non-residential investment. Net exports are expected to add around 0.6-0.7 ppt to headline growth, with interim data showing stronger growth in exports than imports.
17th Oct– 21st Oct 2016
ECB: to allay tapering fears, no new measures expected.We expect the ECB to strongly emphasise at its monthly meeting (20 October) that tapering of its QE programme in 2017 is not being considered. Market speculation over the last few weeks indicated that the ECB may be looking to reduce its asset purchases early.
10th Oct– 14th Oct 2016
US: FOMC minutes and September retail sales in focus.Political developments will remain centre stage as markets and political commentators dissect the second US presidential election debate (9 October). Polls indicate that Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump has widened since the first debate on 26 September. Economics wise, focus will be on the minutes of the 21 September FOMC meeting (11 October).
3rd Oct– 7th Oct 2016
US: Jobs growth likely remained healthy in September.The key data release this week will be the September NFP data (due 7 October). Consensus expects jobs growth remained solid at 170K, and up from the 151K in August. However, historically August and September data tends to be weak on the first print and then subsequently revised higher.
26th Sep– 30th Sep 2016
Oil: OPEC and Russia meet in Algiers to discuss output.We remain sceptical that a deal to limit output will be struck between OPEC and Russia at an informal meeting scheduled for 28 September. This is despite more signs of conciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
19th Sep– 22th Sep 2016
US: FOMC to keep rates on hold.We expect the FOMC to keep monetary policy steady at its September meeting (on 20-21), in line with consensus. We believe that the Fed will wait for the December meeting to raise rates by 25 bps. The FOMC will likely want to see some signs of a pickup in inflationary pressures before hiking.
5th Sep– 9th Sep 2016
Eurozone: Significant monetary easing expected by ECB.The ECB’s monetary policy meeting on 8 September will be the market-moving event of next week. We believe the ECB will be compelled to act to prevent a further deterioration in inflation expectations after prices remained at low levels through the summer and money supply growth slowed again despite the QE.
29th Aug– 2nd Sep 2016
US: Jobs growth likely remained healthy in August. August NFP data (due 2 September) will be even more closely scrutinised after Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that the case for an interest rate hike had strengthened (see page 4). Yellen’s comments keep the door open for a September rate hike if the August payroll numbers are strong, though we still see December as the most likely timing.
22nd Aug– 26th Aug 2016
US: Market to look for guidance on rate hike timing.The key event this week will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech (26 August) at the Jackson Hole Symposium, titled “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future”. The occasion has been used as a platform to announce policy directions and shape monetary policy expectations in the past.
15th Aug– 19th Aug 2016
US: July inflation data and Fed minutes.The key US release this week will be the inflation data for July. Consensus expectations are that the CPI remained steady (0% m-o-m) on the back of falling energy prices and flat food costs. This will be balanced by a 0.2% m-o-m increase in core prices, supported by the cost of shelter and other services.
8th Aug– 12th Aug 2016
China: July numbers to show continued softening. Economic data for July should continue to moderate, in line with our view of a gradual deceleration in real GDP growth in 2H2016. An increased emphasis on SOE reform (reducing excess capacity and leverage) by the government, as suggested in the media recently, is likely to weigh on the industrial production and fixed investment numbers.
1st Aug– 5th Aug 2016
US: July NFP data to remain solid at 175K. The key data release this week (due 5 August) will be the non-farm payroll numbers for July. Consensus expects that a healthy 175K jobs were created in July, albeit down from the 287K in June which was boosted by the weak May print.
25th July– 29th July 2016
Japan: BoJ expected to expand its QE programme and cut rates. In an action-packed week, central banks will take centre stage with particular focus on the BoJ’s meeting (28-29 July). We and the market expect further easing, after the BoJ slashed its inflation forecasts. An expansion in the asset purchase programme of around JPY10 trillion (to JPY90 trillion) is most likely, largely centred on ETFs (to around JPY6 trillion a year, from JPY3.3 trillion).
18th July– 20th July 2016
Europe: ECB to outline monetary policy post-Brexit vote. At its meeting on 21 July – the first since the Brexit vote in June – the ECB will provide its preliminary assessment of the economic and monetary outlook. The broader monetary stance is likely to remain unchanged. However, markets will closely track any estimates by ECB officials of the extent of the slowdown in growth and inflation to gauge the likelihood of QE being extended.
11th July– 15th July 2016
UK: BoE to provide initial assessment of Brexit In its first monetary policy meeting (14 July) following the Brexit vote, the BoE should provide an outline of its post-referendum monetary policy outlook. We do not believe an extensive package of monetary easing measures will be announced yet, though the overall tone of the bank’s comments on the economy and credit conditions is likely to be significantly dovish. In our view, any major monetary easing measures are likely to follow only after the inflation report is released (4 August), in which the bank assesses how the inflationary risks from a weaker GBP are stacked against the disinflationary drag from tepid domestic demand.
4th July– 8th July 2016
Global: Markets have stabilised since Brexit vote A week after the Brexit vote, the losses in financial markets have been more limited than initially expected. So far, the sell-off has focused on specific assets, suggesting some variance in investors’ perceptions of risk in each market.
20th June – 24th June 2016
Global: Uncertainty to drive market volatility The Brexit vote has provided a significant shock to markets and global confidence. Volatility is expected to remain high, as markets digest the implications of the vote. The immediate global economic impact will flow almost entirely through financial channels, as the structural implications for the UK and Eurozone will take time to develop. Global growth forecasts are being reduced for 2016 and beyond as a result of the market moves, heightened risk aversion, expected tightening in financial conditions and rise in political risk.
20th June – 24th June 2016
UK: Global risk sentiment to hinge on EU referendum result The UK votes on whether or not it wants to remain part of the EU on Thursday (23 June). We continue to expect voters to opt for the status quo, despite opinion polls indicating that the result will be a close call. We believe that undecided voters, around 10% of the total currently, are more likely to prefer to stay than to opt out of the EU. We expect a rebound in the GBP in the event of a Remain vote.
13th June – 17th June 2016
US: Fed to remain on hold; projections in spotlight The FOMC is expected to remain on hold on 15 June, keeping the FFTR range at 0.25-0.5%. We believe that the Fed will need time to reassess the overall macro picture following the disappointing NFP data for May. Focus will be on the statement, the Fed’s economic projections and Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference.
6th June – 10th June 2016
US: Yellen’s speech more important after weak labour data The key event this week will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech (6 June) on the economic outlook and monetary policy, which has become even more important after the dismal NFP data for May. Markets will focus on changes to the policy guidance, in light of the weaker jobs data. Any comments on the labour market and how close it is to full employment will be particularly pertinent, in our view.
23rd May – 27th May 2016
Japan: Likely to announce fiscal support; JPY in spotlight The Japanese economy and policy will be the focus of the week as the country hosts the G7 summit (26-27 May). We do not expect any collective steps by the G7, including greater fiscal stimulus to boost demand (a key agenda point). However, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe could use the summit to announce further fiscal stimulus and a delay to the second sales tax hike, though the cabinet is only scheduled to finalise its 2016 fiscal policy after the summit.
16th May – 20th May 2016
US: Watch FOMC minutes for Fed’s rate hike criteria Minutes of the April FOMC meeting will be closely scrutinised, after the Fed effectively kept its options open in the post-meeting statement. The weaker data for 1Q was largely dismissed and the March reference to global risks was dropped, though the FOMC did not give any clear policy direction.
25th April - 29th April 2016
US: FOMC guidance to be closely watched for changes In an important events and data week, the Fed’s meeting (26-27 April) will take centre stage. With monetary policy expected to remain steady, the tone and guidance of the FOMC’s statement will be of particular interest. There are no new forecasts or a press conference in conjunction with this meeting.
18th April - 22nd April 2016
Europe: No change in ECB policy, comments in focus We expect monetary policy to remain steady at the ECB’s 21 April meeting, after the comprehensive package of monetary loosening measures that was introduced in March. We believe the ECB will require a number of months to gauge the impact of the package.
28th March – 1st April 2016
US: Non-farm payrolls to have remained strong in March US labour data will be the key releases of this week, with the focus magnified by the hawkish policy comments by Fed members last week. Consensus forecasts that a solid 208K jobs were created in March, albeit down from the 242K in February.
21st March – 25th March 2016
US: Durable goods orders expected to contract Globally, the week will be relatively quiet with largely secondary data and events ahead of the Easter period. Markets will continue to digest the dovish statement from the Fed which came despite ongoing signs of a pickup in inflation and an improvement in the labour market.
14th March – 18th March 2016
US: No change in Fed policy expected, despite solid data The key event of the week will be the FOMC meeting on 15-16 March, where we expect the Fed to keep policy steady. This includes maintaining the fed funds target rate (FFTR) range at 0.25-0.5%.
7th March – 11th March 2016
Eurozone: ECB set to loosen, but differences in Council could lead to surprise. The key event this week is the ECB meeting on 10 March, where at the very minimum we expect a -10 bps cut in the deposit rate to -0.4%. There have been some expectations of a possible “tiered” deposit rate system, as in Japan, which would help shield bank profitability from deeper negative deposit rates.
29th February – 4th March 2016
US: January nonfarm payrolls the key release Consensus forecasts that a solid 193K jobs were created in February, up from 151K in January. The storms in the North East at the end of January pose a possible risk, in areas such as construction.
22nd February - 26th February 2016
US: Core PCE to be closely watched after inflation surprise The focus of US data this week will be durable goods orders and personal spending data for January. Personal spending is expected to rise to 0.3% m-o-m in January (from 0% in December), in line with the pickup in retail sales.
15th February - 19th February 2016
US: Inflation expected to turn negative on weaker fuel prices US retail sales showed that consumer spending regained momentum in January, despite the market turbulence. Data has not been as weak as markets are implying. However, a key risk remains of the market turmoil affecting the economy through deteriorating sentiment.
8th February - 12th February 2016
US: Yellen testimony to take centre stage Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress (10-11 February) will be the key event of the week. This is especially so after the January non-farm payrolls revived market confidence in the US’s economic recovery.
1st February - 5th February 2016
US: Labour and manufacturing data in focus This week brings numerous important US data releases, including NFPs, ISM manufacturing (January) and personal income and spending (December). Consensus forecasts that a solid 190K jobs were created in January, albeit down from 292K in December.
25th January - 29th January 2016
US: No change in rates, statement to be watched closely The key event this week will be the FOMC's meeting on 26-27 January. We see the focus being on the post-meeting statement, as we expect monetary policy to remain steady. Neither a press conference nor forecast updates are scheduled.
18th January - 22nd January 2016
China: 4Q GDP data, December IP and retail sales Markets will focus on data from China this week, including 4Q GDP growth. The consensus is that real GDP growth will have remained steady at 6.9% y o-y in 4Q, supported in part by stronger government infrastructure spending. Meanwhile, the consensus is for some monthly improvement in the interim data for December, with a pickup in auto sales likely to have supported retail sales and industrial production.
