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Black & White17th Dec- 21th Dec 2018
US: Dot plot likely to be lowered to two rate hikes for 2019. The Fed is widely expected to raise the FFTR by 25 bps to the 2.25-2.5% range at its 18-19 December meeting.
10th Dec- 14th Dec 2018
UK: Brexit deal vote likely to fail, leading to uncertainty Parliament will vote on the Brexit withdrawal agreement on 11 December, and the indications are that it will be rejected.
26th Nov- 30th Nov 2018
US: Fed expected to reaffirm December rate hike. A number of Fed speakers, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Vice Chair Richard Clarida and John Williams, have speaking engagements this week. We believe that they will continue to indicate the need for further rate hikes whilst also highlighting that future rate hikes will be largely data-dependent.
19th Nov- 23rd Nov 2018
UK: Potential leadership challenge and EU summit in focus. Political tensions remain elevated in the UK amidst opposition to the draft Brexit withdrawal agreement presented by Prime Minister Theresa May lastweek.
12th Nov- 16th Nov 2018
US: Monthly core CPI to normalise in October. The upcoming week will be important data wise, with US CPI inflation and retail sales. Core inflation is expected to normalise to 0.2% m-o-m in October, after two consecutive months of softer prints of 0.1% (rounded), keeping the y-o-y rate unchanged at 2.2%.
5th Nov- 9th Nov Oct 2018
US: Split Congress expected in mid-terms; Fed on hold All eyes will be on the US mid-term elections to be held on 6 November with the results expected to be announced the following day. Recent polls indicate a split Congress with Democrats winning the House and Republicans retaining the Senate.
29th Oct- 2nd Nov Oct 2018
US: Solid labour market report expected for October The equity market sell-off deepened last week amidst fears of further Fed rate hikes and a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
22nd Oct- 26th Oct 2018
US: Eurozone: ECB meeting focus on reinvestment strategy The ECB is expected to keep monetary policy steady at its 25 October meeting. We believe that the central bank will reiterate its policy guidance of i) ending its asset purchase programme by end-2018; and ii) keeping interest rates unchanged until “at least through the summer of 2019”.
15th Oct- 19th Oct 2018
US: Strong print expected for September retail sales Developments in global equity markets will remain centre-stage following the depth and rapidity of the sell-off last week.
8th Oct- 12th Oct 2018
US: Core inflation expected to rise marginally in September The key US data release this week will be CPI inflation for September with consensus forecasting core inflation accelerated to 0.2% m-o-m in September, (August: 0.1%), taking the y-o-y print to 2.3% (August: 2.2%).
24th Sep - 28th Sep 2018
US: FOMC’s 2019 dot plot projections take centre stage. The Fed is widely expected to raise the fed funds target rate (FFTR) by 25bps to 2.25% (the upper bound) at its 25-26 September meeting.
17th Sep - 21st Sep 2018
UK: Labour party’s stand on second Brexit referendum in focus. The key events in the UK will be the Labour Party conference (23-26 September) and an informal EU leader summit which will discuss Brexit developments (20 September).
10th Sep - 14th Sep 2018
Turkey: CBRT to hike 1-week repo rate by 300bps to 20.75%. The CBRT is widely expected to raise its 1-week repo rate by at least 300bps to 20.75% from 17.75% at its 13 September meeting.
20th Aug - 24th Aug 2018
US: Fed communication in spotlight. The key event this week will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech (24 August) at the Jackson Hole Symposium, titled “Changing Market Structure and Implications for Monetary Policy”.
13th Aug - 17th Aug 2018
EM: Turkey emergency rate hike, Egypt central bank on hold. In Turkey, we envisage the CBRT will likely have to implement an intermeeting emergency rate hike to provide some vital support to the TRY, which continues to face immense selling pressure.
30th July- 3rd Aug 2018
UK: BoE to hike in August; voting pattern in focus. The BoE is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 0.75% at its 2 August meeting. The market’s focus will likely be on the voting pattern, forward guidance, neutral rate estimate and inflation projections.
23rd- 27th July 2018
Eurozone: No change to ECB policy, dovish tone to continue. The ECB is expected to keep its monetary policy steady at its 26 July meeting after announcing in the previous meeting that its asset-purchase programme would end by Dec-2018.
16th- 20th July 2018
US: Powell’s comments on trade tensions in focus. Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers his semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee (17 July) and the House Financial Services Committee (18 July) this week. The markets will particularly examine his comments on trade tariffs and their potential impact on the growth and inflation outlooks.
9th- 13th July 2018
US: June CPI inflation and semi-annual monetary policy report. This week will be a quieter one in the US following the FOMC minutes and labour data last week (page 3-4). The key US data releases this week will be June CPI inflation and the May JOLTS report. Consensus projects headline CPI inflation remained steady at 0.2% m-o-m in June, with higher gasoline prices being a key driver.
2nd- 6th July 2018
US: Solid labour market report expected for June. The upcoming week will be busy with a number of US releases due including the June labour market report, ISM manufacturing data and the minutes of the FOMC's 12-13 June meeting. Consensus forecasts a solid 195K jobs were created in June, albeit down from 223K in May.
18th- 22nd June 2018
UK: Steady monetary policy; clues for August meeting. The BoE is widely expected to keep monetary policy steady at its 21 June meeting, including interest rates and the QE programme. Recent data has remained soft (page 4), including weakening wage growth.
11th- 15th June 2018
US: Fed expected to hike; forward guidance in focus. Central bank meetings will be the key events this week, alongside the release of May inflation data for the US and UK. Consensus estimates that US core CPI inflation accelerated to 0.2% m-o-m in May (April: 0.1%) driven by rents and other services, taking the annual reading to 2.2% (April: 2.1%).
28th May- 1st June 2018
US: Solid NFP report expected for May with 190K jobs created. The US sees a number of key data releases this week, including the May NFP report, ISM manufacturing, April core PCE and the second estimate of 1Q GDP. Consensus estimates a solid labour report with 190K jobs created in May (April: 165K).
21st- 25th May 2018
Global: Central bank comments and UK inflation. Key events in the US this week will be the May FOMC minutes, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech (25 May) and April durable goods data. We expect the minutes of the May FOMC meeting to highlight a detailed discussion regarding inclusion of a "symmetric" inflation target in the statement, the flattening yield curve and risks around trade and geopolitical tensions.
14th- 18th May 2018
Global: US retail sales and Japan 1Q GDP data. Fed vice chair nominee Richard Clarida and Fed governor nominee Michelle Bowman will appear before the Senate Banking Committee for their confirmation hearings this week. We expect both nominees’ views to broadly reflect the FOMC’s current gradual interest rate hike stance.
7th- 11th May 2018
UK: BoE to remain on hold; forward guidance in focus. We expect the BoE to keep its policy rate on hold at its 10 May meeting following the significant slowdown in 1Q GDP growth, the disinflation backdrop and recent dovish comments from BoE Governor Mark Carney, including over the timing of the next interest rate hike.
30th April- 4th May 2018
US: Labour data, PCE inflation and FOMC meeting. The Fed is expected to keep the FFTR on hold with the upper bound rate set to remain at 1.75% in its 1-2 May meeting. The main communication will come from the statement, as there will be no post-meeting press conference.
23th- 27th April 2018
Eurozone: ECB to remain on hold with dovish tilt. The ECB is expected to keep monetary policy steady at its 26 April meeting, with the tone of the meeting likely to remain dovish. ECB President Mario Draghi is likely to reiterate “patience, persistence, and prudence” regarding monetary policy.
16th- 20th April 2018
US: Central bank comments and retail sales data.The market will continue to focus on geopolitical risk and trade developments this week. We believe that any further escalation in geopolitical risk could raise crude oil supply concerns, which in turn could keep crude prices high in the near term.
9th- 13th April 2018
US: March FOMC minutes and inflation data. All eyes will be on any further trade announcements from the US and China. We believe that the risk of a trade war has increased further after US President Donald Trump instructed the US trade representative to consider additional tariffs on USD100 billion worth of imports from China.
2nd- 6th April 2018
US: Solid non-farm payrolls report expected for March. US labour data will be the key release this week with consensus expecting that a healthy 189K jobs were created in March, albeit down from a remarkable 313K in February.
26th- 30th Mar 2018
US: February PCE inflation and Fed speakers This week will be a quieter one following the FOMC meeting last week (page 3). The main data releases from the US will be February PCE inflation and final 4Q GDP.
19th- 23rd Mar 2018
US: Fed widely expected to hike, focus on forward guidance The Fed is expected to raise the fed funds target rate (FFTR) by 25bps to 1.75% (the upper bound) at its 21 March meeting. Market focus will be on the forward guidance, particularly on the “dot plot” projections, economic forecasts and post-meeting communication.
5th- 9th Mar 2018
US: NFP data for February and tariffs on steel and aluminium. The risk of a trade war has increased after President Donald Trump indicated that he would impose tariffs on imported steel (25%) and aluminium (10%). The measures are due to be formally announced this week, with a number of countries suggesting that they will consider action in response.
26th Feb- 2nd Mar 2018
US: Central bank comments and PCE inflation data in focus. The key event this week will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s first semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress (27 and 28 February). Attention will particularly be on the Q&A session, which could provide some insight into his views and priorities on inflation and his interest rate outlook.
19th Feb- 23rd Feb 2018
US: January FOMC minutes and Fed speakers. Focus this week will be on the FOMC minutes and speeches by key Fed members, including William Dudley, Randal Quarles and John Williams. The tone of the speakers will be particularly important after last week’s surprise pick-up in January CPI inflation.
5th Feb- 9th Feb 2018
Global: BoE meeting, Fed speeches and financial markets. The initial focus of the week will be on the degree of contagion on global markets following last week’s sharp selloff in US equities and 10-year treasuries. The US market moves were in part a response to a stronger-than-expected labour market report for January (page 5), especially wages, which raised concerns of a potentially stronger inflation and interest rate outlook.
29th Jan- 2nd Feb 2018
US: Fed meeting and State of the Union address.We expect the Fed to remain on hold at its 30-31 January meeting after raising the FFTR by 25 bps in December. The focus will be on the tone of the post-meeting statement (a press conference is not scheduled), particularly in gauging the likelihood of a March rate hike.
22nd Jan- 26th Jan 2018
US: Government shutdown and 4Q GDP data. All eyes will be on the US government shutdown, the likely impact on global markets and economic momentum, and negotiations to break the deadlock. Consensus estimates that the shutdown is likely to cut 0.1pp from GDP growth for each week of closure (see page 2).
15th Jan- 19th Jan 2018
UK: CPI inflation likely to decelerate in December. This week will feature important UK releases, namely inflation and retail sales data for December. Consensus forecasts headline inflation decelerated slightly to 3% y-o-y in December after reaching a 68-month high of 3.1% in November.
