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Economic Research
US: Rapidly rising US COVID-19 cases cause concern. The continued rise in US COVID-19 cases and announcement of new statelevel restrictions remain near-term risks to economic fundamentals, though positive vaccine developments continue to bolster sentiment.
Economic Research
US: Divided Congress likely to limit size of fiscal stimulus. The presidential election has been called for Joe Biden after his lead widened to a probably unassailable level in Pennsylvania, which took him over the needed 270 electoral votes.
Economic Research
US: Polls point to Joe Biden winning presidential election. Risk-off sentiment gathered pace last week with rising global COVID-19 cases leading to fresh lockdowns in Europe (the UK, Germany and France) and increasing election-related uncertainty in the US.
Press Release
Economic Research
US: Daily COVID-19 cases record new high ahead of elections. COVID-19 cases are rising sharply in the US, with new daily infections above 83K on Friday and Saturday – the highest recorded daily cases so far.
Economic Research
US: Final presidential debate to be in focus. Global markets’ focus will remain on three areas: i) the second wave of COVID- 19 cases internationally and the economic impact of localised lockdowns; ii) political developments in the US and the UK; and iii) the potential response from governments and central banks in the event of protracted localised lockdown measures.
Economic Research
US: Fiscal stimulus package looks unlikely before elections. Consensus now believes the likelihood of additional fiscal stimulus before the presidential election has declined...
Economic Research
US: Trump’s health and polls to be watched closely. Risk-off sentiment gathered pace at the end of last week after US President Donald Trump tested positive for COVID-19.
Economic Research
US: Economy expected to have added 850K jobs in September. All eyes will be on the first presidential debate between incumbent Donald Trump and opponent Joe Biden, which will be held on 29 September.
Economic Research
Global: Fed Chair Powell to testify before Congress. Near-term risks to the global recovery remain, with COVID-19 cases seeing a sharp rise again in a number of countries, including the UK, Spain and France. Political uncertainties also remain ahead of the US presidential election and the end of the Brexit transition period.
Economic Research
Global: Fed, BoE and BoJ to remain on hold. Global growth recovery concerns persist amidst mixed data releases and rising COVID-19 cases. Global COVID-19 new daily infections rose to a 55-day high of 330.6K on Saturday, from 266K on Friday.
Economic Research
Global: Political developments to be in focus. Incoming economic data from the US, including labour market reports (page4) and the ISM manufacturing index, continue to point to an ongoing recovery from the pandemic.
Economic Research
US: August NFP data expected to show further recovery. Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced during his Jackson Hole speech that the FOMC will shift its policy-setting framework to an average inflation-targeting regime.
Press Release
Economic Research
US: New fiscal stimulus looks unlikely until September. Macroeconomic data released last week showed that the economic recovery in the US continued in July, with better-than-expected core retail sales, CPI inflation (page 3) and weekly initial jobless claims.
Press Release
Economic Research
US: Trump signs executive orders to provide economic stimulus. Incoming data from the US continues to surprise to the upside, with both July nonfarm payrolls (page 2) and ISM manufacturing beating consensus estimates.
Economic Research
US: Hiring activity forecast to slow in July. All eyes this week will be on the US fiscal stimulus negotiations and the July nonfarm payrolls report.
Economic Research
US: Awaiting additional fiscal stimulus plan details. Sentiment at the end of last week was dampened by US-China tensions, with concerns rising over a potential escalation.
Press Release
Economic Research
Global: UK retail sales and PMI data in focus. The market’s focus this week will be on high-frequency data to gauge the pace of economic recovery from COVID-19.
Economic Research
Eurozone: ECB expected to be on hold with wait-and-see stance. We and the consensus expect the ECB to maintain a steady policy at its 16 July meeting...
Press Release
Economic Research
Global: UK Chancellor Sunak may announce new fiscal stimulus. The risk-on sentiment prevailed in global equity markets last week due to the better-than-expected economic data, including US non-farm payrolls (page 2), ISM manufacturing index (page 3) and Eurozone unemployment rate.
Economic Research
US: New COVID-19 cases and NFP data to be scrutinised closely. Labour market data will be in focus this week to gauge the pace of recovery, especially amidst the increase in new COVID-19 infections.
Economic Research
Global: US Personal spending data to rebound in May. Sentiment has continued to oscillate, swinging in a positive direction due to the ongoing reopening of economies and central banks’ policy support, but swinging back the other way due to concerns over COVID-19 cases increasing.
Economic Research
US: Fed’s Powell testifies to Congress; retail sales data due. Renewed fears over the impact of COVID-19 on global growth resulted in a return of risk-off sentiment last week.
Economic Research
Global: Positive sentiment continuing to build. Global risk-on sentiment continued to gather pace last week with the positive surprise in US jobs growth in May...
Economic Research
US: Unemployment rate forecast to rise to 19.6% in May. Global sentiment continues to strengthen as more countries start reducing social distancing measures and gradually re-open.
Press Release
Economic Research
Oil: Easing of lockdown restrictions helping to improve demand. The gradual re-opening of the global economies gathered pace last week, with data indicating that people...
Economic Research
US: Fed Chair Powell speech in focus. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on current economic issues on 13 May in a webinar hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Economic Research
US: Unemployment rate likely to rise to a record 16.0% in April. All eyes this week will be on the April labour market report to gauge the magnitude of job losses during the intense lockdown period.
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